Canada is trying to turn a loose coalition into a working supply club at the G7 Critical Minerals Production Alliance. Provincial leaders endorsed the concept at Kananaskis in June 2025, then Ottawa told ministers to deliver milestones by year end. China still processes about 91 percent of rare earths, so the control problem writes itself.
A signing ceremony is scheduled on October 31. With Tim Hodgson stating, “We will see this week many examples of us moving beyond talks to firm commitments.”
Envoys Named, Ottawa Sets Terms
All seven G7 capitals have now named envoys to the Alliance, which lets Ottawa convene and push files between summits. Canada’s envoy sits inside NRCan, a sign the work runs through permits, offtakes, and funding.
Canada also has hard tools at home, under the Investment Canada Act. Ottawa can block deals or force sales on national security grounds. It did exactly that on November 2, 2022, ordering three Chinese investors to divest from Canadian lithium juniors. The policy line for state owned or influenced investors in critical minerals is simple, approvals are “exceptional” and national security reviews are the rule. That is the bite, and companies plan around it.
The minister’s goal this week is to convert allied intent into operating rules, like coordinated stockpiles, aligned export finance, and shared offtakes. Plainly put: one buyer group, multiple mines, predictable cash. As the minister said, the G7 will move “beyond talks to firm commitments,” including price backed tools and offtake agreements.
Offtakes And Stockpiles Shift Control
Cash and contracts decide who gets the tonnes. Canada already has a few checks it can write. The C$1.5 billion Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund can cover up to 50 percent of eligible project costs and up to C$50 million per project for most applicants. Paired with export credit and allied DFIs, that reduces capex risk and speeds final investment decisions.
Exploration gets a tax sweetener, too. The 30 percent Critical Mineral Exploration Tax Credit applies to flow through funded expenses under agreements signed. That lowers equity cost of capital for early stage work in copper, nickel, lithium, graphite, rare earths and more. It is a small tool, but it keeps drills turning while bigger cheques crawl through committees.
The G7 piece adds demand certainty. Reuters reports ministers are aiming to lock in offtakes and stockpiles this week. Offtakes set price and volume ahead of time, which lets banks lend against contracts rather than hope. Stockpiles act like sandbags against market squeezes, dulling price spikes that can blow up project finance. It is unglamorous, but so is pouring concrete.
Why does this mining push matter for Canada? The sector mattered long before EVs. In 2022, minerals and metals supported about 420,000 direct jobs and added C$109 billion to GDP. With China’s dominance in refining rare earths and battery inputs still above 80 percent in many steps, any single nation trying to outbid Beijing alone would bleed cash. A pooled buyer table can standardize terms and share risk.
If the Toronto meeting delivers signed offtakes and a stockpile plan on October 31, the Alliance moves from press release to purchase order. If not, it is still talk, and China keeps setting the price. The schedule says the deals are coming. The balance sheet needs them to be real.
