Washington’s walk-away gives Mark Carney licence to court Asia, yet diversification without stronger domestic ownership risks another dependency trap. The question is whether now, with U.S. talks frozen, Ottawa will hard-wire ownership rules before bargaining for new market access.
Reset Foreign Control
Foreign firms still own 44.1 percent of Canada’s manufacturing assets, Statistics Canada found on 9 October 2024. That share shapes capital allocation, because boardroom calls on R&D or re-tooling happen abroad. Without stiffer Investment Canada Act rules, swapping U.S. buyers for Asian champions still lets profits and patents leave.
One lever sits on the minister’s desk: make automatic net-benefit reviews above C$500 million for critical minerals. Publish reasons for every approval. The lull in U.S. talks buys political bandwidth to pass that tweak.
Hustle Asian Demand
Carney will spend this week in Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea courting deals, a trip flagged on 17 October 2025 by his office. The Indo-Pacific already accounts for C$261 billion of two-way goods trade, second only to the U.S. haul. Even so, 75 percent of Canadian exports still move south, Reuters notes. Hours after President Trump iced bilateral talks, Carney told reporters, “We stand ready to pick up on progress when the U.S. is ready.” The framing buys him time abroad without looking as if he slammed the door at home.
Analysts doubt optics alone will convince Asian partners that Canada acts independently of Washington. Vina Nadjibulla noted, “Canada stands apart and is still interested in rules-based trade and globalization,” a reminder that rhetoric must align with concessions.
Polls still show 59 percent of Canadians hold negative views of China, so public patience for symbolic photo-ops is thin. Handing critical mineral projects to Chinese state groups would spark backlash faster than NAFTA turmoil.
Carney’s window is measured in months, not years. If Ottawa staples firm ownership rules to any Asian pact, it breaks the cycle. If not, the passports on the board may change while the leverage stays American.
