Articles for category: Finance

November 10, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

Ontario trims deficit in fall fiscal update

Ontario tabled its fall economic statement on November 6, cutting the current‑year deficit outlook and sketching new tariff relief, and it drew immediate fire from a major public‑sector union. The fiscal update, formally the Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, sets the stage for a cautious winter as trade friction weighs on growth and job prospects. For markets, the headline is smaller red ink, steady reserves, and a clearer borrowing path. The politics will run hotter. Queen’s Park now pegs the deficit at C$13.5 billion in 2025 to 2026, an improvement from the spring budget’s C$14.6 billion track. The update

November 5, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

Spending shift puts capital first in 2025

Ottawa’s fall budget, the first under Prime Minister Mark Carney, points almost every fiscal arrow at one target: capital formation. The package lifts the 2025-26 deficit to about C$78 billion while mapping C$280 billion in five-year investments for infrastructure, productivity and clean industry. It does so under a new Capital Budgeting Framework that treats those outlays as assets, not program costs. Capital lens steers program dollars Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne calls the framework “a stronger financial foundation” that will let Parliament see which dollars build productive capacity and which cover day-to-day operations. For corporate Canada, the distinction matters. Projects that

October 30, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

National Bank Names Julie Lévesque Personal Banking Head

National Bank has moved its personal banking to IT veteran Julie Lévesque. She takes the EVP role on January 1, 2026, as longtime retail lead Lucie Blanchet retires after 23 years and shifts to a CEO advisory post. National says Lévesque will keep oversight of tech and operations for Personal and Commercial Banking, a clean sign that core systems will call the shots in retail. Integration Sets The Calendar The timing lines up with the Canadian Western Bank deal. National Bank closed that acquisition on February 3, 2025, and has been moving clients over in waves through fall 2025 with

October 28, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

Wealthsimple Raises C$750 Million At C$10 Billion

Wealthsimple will raise up to C$750 million at a C$10 billion valuation. Foreign funds co-lead the round, but control stays with Canadian owners. The deal mixes C$550 million of new money with up to C$200 million of existing shares, which spreads cost between new backers and early sellers. The company says it is profitable and holds C$100 billion in assets, which gives it room to expand products in Canada, based on its own update on October 27, 2025. Global Funds Put In Cash GIC and Dragoneer will lead the funding, joined by CPP Investments. That mix brings foreign cash in,

October 21, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

Tariffs Blunt Cuts, BoC Surveys Flag Weak Investment

A rate cut on October 29 looks baked in after the Bank’s fresh surveys show sentiment stuck in low gear and inflation expectations contained. Tariffs are clogging the channels, so cheaper money will not unlock capex or hiring while trade rules stay volatile. The Business Outlook Survey published October 20 confirms outlooks remain subdued, investment plans focus on maintenance, and price‑setting power is limited.  Read The Fresh Signals Start with the field dates. BOS interviews ran August 7 to September 3, mostly before Ottawa removed some counter‑tariffs, and CSCE interviews ran July 31 to August 21. That timing means little

October 21, 2025

Signal Editorial

IMF Backs Canada’s Capital-Budget Pivot, With Conditions

The International Monetary Fund put political cover behind Ottawa’s shift to a fall budget and a capital‑budget lens, when Kristalina Georgieva said, “Both Germany and Canada recognize that in this very testing time, they need to use their fiscal space.” Her endorsement raises expectations that Ottawa will prioritise projects that lift measured productivity, not transient transfers. Finance Canada has already scheduled Budget 2025 for November 4, 2025, and set the fall cycle as permanent in a capital‑budgeting backgrounder. Enforce Capital Discipline, Not Optics The Department of Finance will separate operating from investment in the budget, while keeping Public Accounts under

October 15, 2025

Signal Editorial

Home Equity Trends and Flood Measures Shape TD

A new snapshot from TD’s U.S. retail bank shows homeowners delaying moves and leaning on home equity products as rate uncertainty persists, with 74 percent planning to stay put over the next two years and 58 percent citing their existing loan rate as a key factor, reinforcing how balance sheet mix will matter more than volume alone if margins compress with further policy easing, a dynamic that connects directly to domestic rate settings as the Bank of Canada’s policy rate sits at 2.5 percent as of September 17, 2025. See the survey detail and timing in a new TD Bank

October 10, 2025

Signal Editorial

stock chart up

Why GoldMining Inc. Jumped as Bullion Broke Fresh Records

Bullion beta, equity stakes, and optionality premium GoldMining has outperformed because its model amplifies bullion moves. When spot gold vaulted above $4,000 an ounce, optionality-heavy names with large in-situ resources and embedded investments caught a bid, and this issuer sits squarely in that lane. “Gold prices have surged past $4,000,” the Financial Times reported, framing a new risk regime that rewards torque over steady-state yield. With bullion setting a first-ever “four handle” and futures extending into the afternoon, broad miners rallied — but the higher-beta cohort drew incremental flows that scenario analysis suggests were driven by ETF rebalancing, momentum screens,

October 9, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

stock chart

Buffett indicator warns Canadians as U.S. valuations top dot com peak

The setup looks stretched. By the most watched market-size gauge, the United States equity market now sits far above its economy and even above the late-1990s crest, a level that historically preceded lean forward returns for global investors who were pulled along by Wall Street’s tide. Put plainly, the Buffett indicator—that is, total market value over GDP—is hovering a little above 200 percent (≈ 217 % as of mid-2025), versus roughly 150 percent at the 2000 peak, which leaves scant margin for disappointment if earnings or policy wobble. In Canada, context matters. Our public market is smaller, more cyclically tilted,

September 29, 2025

Signal Editorial

Fintech Sector Braces for Expanded Access to the Canadian Payments Act

Canada’s financial sector is entering a new era of innovation as amendments to the Canadian Payments Act expand access to Payments Canada’s systems. These changes open the door for non-bank payment service providers and credit unions to participate directly in national payment infrastructure for the first time. This expanded access will accelerate fintech growth by levelling the playing field and fostering more competition across the industry. By allowing a wider range of regulated entities to connect directly to core systems such as Lynx and the forthcoming Real-Time Rail, the updated framework supports faster, more efficient, and more transparent transactions. It also gives fintechs the