Articles for category: Politics

November 10, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

Ontario trims deficit in fall fiscal update

Ontario tabled its fall economic statement on November 6, cutting the current‑year deficit outlook and sketching new tariff relief, and it drew immediate fire from a major public‑sector union. The fiscal update, formally the Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, sets the stage for a cautious winter as trade friction weighs on growth and job prospects. For markets, the headline is smaller red ink, steady reserves, and a clearer borrowing path. The politics will run hotter. Queen’s Park now pegs the deficit at C$13.5 billion in 2025 to 2026, an improvement from the spring budget’s C$14.6 billion track. The update

November 1, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

Xi And Carney Agree To Advance Relations At APEC

Despite ongoing tariff issues, Xi Jinping and Mark Carney signaled a reset for diplomatic relations during their meeting at the APEC summit. Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, last Friday, the two leaders agreed to advance ties and Carney accepted Xi’s invitation to visit China, though a date has not yet been set. This discussion marks their first formal leaders’ meeting in years, representing a significant break from the diplomatic freeze that began after the 2018 Huawei arrests. Tariffs Set The Terms Canada’s 100 percent surcharge on Chinese EVs took effect on October 1, 2024, on top of the 6.1 percent

October 29, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

Ottawa Plans To Shrink Federal Public Service

Ottawa is moving from talk to cuts. Finance Minister François‑Philippe Champagne says the fall budget will shrink the federal public service, and he has already told ministers to find savings across operations. As of March 31, 2025, the public service had already fallen to 357,965 people, down about 9,800 from a year earlier. That is the first drop in a decade, and it shows the squeeze started before budget day. The planned budget date is November 4, and the government is selling it as austerity plus investment. In a minority Parliament, the votes to pass it are not automatic. The

October 29, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

Trump Raises Tariffs, Still Dines With Carney

Ottawa focuses on diversifying amid rising tariffs. Trump hiked tariffs on Canada by another 10 percent last week, then still sat across from Mark Carney at an APEC dinner in South Korea. Canadian exporters feel it now in autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. That pushes Carney to lock Asia demand this week, not next year. Carney’s Asia Push Is About Leverage Carney is chasing real options to ensure Canada can stand on its own two feet. He set a mission to double non-U.S. exports over the next decade, then hit Malaysia, Singapore, and Korea. He met Singapore’s PM to advance

October 27, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

Provinces Cannot Run Trade, Ottawa Must Control

Ottawa is right to tell provinces to stay out of U.S. trade fights. Trump’s 10 percent tariff hike after Ontario’s ad shows one province can raise costs for the country. The hike adds a border tax, called a tariff, on goods at the U.S. line. Only the federal government can run international trade talks under section 91 of the Constitution Act, 1867, the trade and commerce power. Collection and Consequences A U.S. tariff hits at the port, then someone pays. Sometimes the Canadian exporter eats the cost to keep a U.S. customer. Sometimes the U.S. buyer pays more and buys

October 27, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

Cut Red Tape And Save BC Forestry

British Columbia is choking its own forestry sector by keeping fibre permits locked down. Looser, faster approvals would keep mills open and jobs in Canada. The BC Council of Forest Industries, or COFI, says last year’s harvest slid to 35 million cubic metres, 42 percent below the annual allowable cut, the legal cap and 10,000 jobs vanished. Shrinking Log Pile Sinclar Group just cut output 40 percent at three northern mills, parking 350 direct jobs because fibre was missing, not buyers. In the company’s notice, president Greg Stewart said, “The significance of this action should not be underestimated,” adding that

October 27, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

Carney Bets On Asia While U.S. Stalls

Washington’s walk-away gives Mark Carney licence to court Asia, yet diversification without stronger domestic ownership risks another dependency trap. The question is whether now, with U.S. talks frozen, Ottawa will hard-wire ownership rules before bargaining for new market access. Reset Foreign Control Foreign firms still own 44.1 percent of Canada’s manufacturing assets, Statistics Canada found on 9 October 2024. That share shapes capital allocation, because boardroom calls on R&D or re-tooling happen abroad. Without stiffer Investment Canada Act rules, swapping U.S. buyers for Asian champions still lets profits and patents leave. One lever sits on the minister’s desk: make automatic

October 24, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

Ontario Ad Torpedoes Talks, Diversify Now

Ontario’s C$75 million Reagan-themed advertisement handed Washington the perfect excuse to freeze tariff talks. Canada lost negotiating leverage overnight and now stares at a familiar problem: 75.9 percent of exports still ride the U.S. pipeline. The mechanism is simple: the ad poked Trump, Trump killed the talks, supply chains and investment plans stalled. Cut Reliance, Build Capacity U.S. trade tantrums are no longer shocks, they are structural. Ottawa must treat them as a permanent risk and shrink single-market exposure. Three levers exist. First, redirect federal financing, procurement, and tax credits toward firms that add capacity inside Canada rather than expand

October 24, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

Carney’s Diversification Bet Meets Hard Math

Carney’s goal to double non‑US exports within a decade is directionally right, but the math is brutal without faster execution. The pledge, tied to his October 22 address and framed as C$300 billion more trade, needs policy teeth now, not in 2033. The government set the target in a prime time speech that also touted new build‑faster laws and a fresh projects office, both meant to move exports beyond the United States’ grip. That framing is credible on paper, but delivery hinges on provinces, ports, pipelines, and buyers outside North America, not slogans in Ottawa. The risk window is immediate,

October 23, 2025

Bay St Signal Editors

Ottawa Leans On Pensions, Carrots Over Sticks

Ottawa is turning the pension dial toward home, not by quotas, but by sweetening the deal. The strategy only works if investable projects appear fast. The government’s push, flagged in reporting that Canada now urges pension funds to invest at home, is paired with rule changes that lower ownership caps, concessionary co‑financing, and a new fast lane for megaproject approvals. Remove Caps, Dangle Projects Finance Canada already unlocked the door by removing the 30 percent rule on Canadian entities, and by tying AI data centre financing to a 2:1 pension co‑investment. The Privy Council then stood up a Major Projects