Nuvini’s FY2025 outline is small in absolute terms but relevant in kind for vertical market software, with management guiding to roughly R$50 to R$60 million of EBITDA ex M&A and explicitly framing a Constellation‑style compounding model in Latin America. The disclosure gives another read on private acquisition pricing, retention and cash conversion in the VMS roll‑up niche that Constellation Software scaled globally. Brazil rollups rarely register in TSX screens. See the primary Nuvini guidance release.
Assess Nuvini’s Guidance Against CSU Economics
Start with what is comparable. Nuvini stresses high retention, cash conversion above 65 percent and accretive deal multiples, then pegs an acquisition pipeline that could lift annualized run‑rate EBITDA to roughly R$85 to R$95 million by Q1 2026 if LOIs close, a reminder that pipeline timing and funding cost dominate small consolidators’ outcomes.
Scale advantages still matter. By contrast, Constellation disclosed Q2 2025 revenue of 2,844 million dollars, 15 percent year over year, with organic growth at 5 percent, and completed acquisitions with total consideration of 469 million dollars, including 89 million of deferred payments and standard holdbacks, reinforcing its structurally lower execution risk and cheaper capital per deal through programmatic volume. See the issuer’s Q2 2025 results release.
Cash generation underpins acquisition cadence. Constellation’s Q2 cash from operations rose 63 percent to 433 million dollars and FCFA2S increased to 220 million dollars, while a 1.00 dollar dividend was declared for October 10, 2025, facts that bear on funding runway and capital deployment flexibility across the six operating groups. FX still trims reported growth. As management noted, organic growth adjusted for currency was 4 percent, which adds context when comparing to Latin American peers reporting in reais.
Track CSU Momentum And Leadership Shift
Leadership stability is material to a decentralized acquirer. On September 25, 2025, Constellation announced that founder Mark Leonard resigned as President for health reasons and appointed COO Mark Miller as President, with Leonard remaining on the board. Transition risk is not trivial. The company followed with an October 1 shareholder Q&A webcast, a departure from its no‑quarterly‑call posture, aimed at addressing continuity and capital allocation priorities in the near term. See the primary leadership transition release and the subsequent webcast notice.
One short quote frames the moment and the comp. “Our model is simple, disciplined acquisitions at attractive multiples,” said Pierre Schurmann.
Watch Currency, Capital And Pipelines
For valuation read‑through, Nuvini’s approach highlights how sustained retention and cash conversion can support mid‑single‑digit organic growth plus bolt‑ons, which is the same mechanism that underlies Constellation’s ability to keep deploying billions into small, recurring revenue assets while absorbing execution bumps from any single vertical or geography.
Pipeline quality drives results. For CSU specifically, the mix of maintenance and other recurring revenue at 2,144 million dollars in Q2, out of 2,844 million dollars total, indicates ongoing resilience in customer cohorts during leadership transition, with FX movements and non‑cash revaluation items explaining much of the quarter’s net income volatility. Investors should track holdback balances, non‑recourse debt at operating units, and the cadence of post‑close margin stabilization to gauge how 2025 deployment translates into 2026 free cash flow.
Not a recommendation, for information only.
