Money is moving where the government is pointing. Investors are rotating into defence contractors, engineers, and builders as Ottawa promises to fast-track flagship projects and increase military spending — the shift has started to show up on the tape, according to Reuters.
Following through, Prime Minister Mark Carney has paired an accelerated path to the NATO benchmark with a new Defence Investment Agency intended to unclog procurement and concentrate buying power under a single roof, led by former RBC executive Doug Guzman. The setup is explicit: hit two percent of GDP on defence now, then pull forward approvals and financing for ships, aircraft, munitions, and dual-use infrastructure so the industrial base can scale, with an eye to a longer runway of spending.
From ports to power lines, the parallel construction is taking shape. In September, Ottawa referred its first slate of “major nation-building” proposals to a new Major Projects Office, including LNG Canada Phase 2, the Darlington small modular reactor, Montreal’s Contrecœur container terminal, and two copper projects that would lift domestic supply chains and export capacity. This is the policy investors craved: a shorter permitting clock, one project and one review, and a federal hand to structure capital stacks around provincial and Indigenous partners.
There is fresh interest in defence companies with strong Canadian ties, particularly in sectors like training systems, surveillance, and robotics. In parallel, engineering and program management firms are positioned to win contracts as project scopes become clearer. WSP Global, Stantec, and AtkinsRéalis are often named as likely early beneficiaries in this pursuit of larger-scale projects. The same logic is showing up in materials and heavy civils, where a steady cadence of design work often precedes shovels by several quarters — exactly when capital tries to front-run the cycle, as any veteran of a PATH lunchtime rumor mill will tell you.
On the ground, some data already reflect a turn, even through macro headwinds. In the first quarter, Canadian construction starts rose 68.5 percent year over year, led by power infrastructure and office or data centre projects, though forecasters still expect total 2025 starts to decline on softer residential and nonresidential buildings, with civil works the relative bright spot. That mixed picture matters, as it prioritizes immediate opportunities in engineering and project preparation, with procurement and long-cycle installs to follow once appropriations and reviews are completed.
Housing is part of the same nation-building arc. Ottawa’s new Build Canada Homes agency plans to deploy dedicated funding, public land, and standardized methods to accelerate supportive and affordable supply — a move that could tighten backlogs for fabricators and trades while smoothing the demand curve as mega-projects spool up. The goal is speed, not spectacle.
Carney’s own line captures the posture: “We will build big, build now, and build Canada strong.” The quote is doing work in boardrooms because it reads like a delivery promise, not a slogan — and because the portfolio map that follows includes energy corridors, northern trade routes, and high-speed rail, each with defence and economic spillovers.
The risks are not subtle. Timelines can slip if provinces balk or supply chains tighten, and a slower economy could force Ottawa to pace ambitions, which would hit construction volumes before defence backlogs. Domestic content rules could also narrow supplier fields and raise costs, although they may deepen the Canadian moat for firms positioned to execute at scale — which is the point of industrial policy in the first place.
For now, the “why now” is straightforward: Ottawa is wiring the approvals and procurement plumbing in a way that favours Canadian operators with proven delivery records in defence, engineering, and heavy civils, and capital is already tracking the flow. Investors may want to monitor order books, bid conversion, and staffing pipelines at the firms most likely to sit at the table as the first wave of projects closes — not a recommendation.
