Canada is once again a target in the global scramble for minerals that power clean tech, aerospace and national defence. From cobalt in the Congo to lithium in Chile, supply chains are reorganizing at speed, forcing Ottawa and Bay Street to rethink what foreign ownership means for future prosperity.
The lesson is clear. When a metal is truly strategic, giving up control today can leave manufacturers and workers stranded when the next trade shock arrives.
Ottawa tightens Investment Canada rules
Federal policy is moving, albeit slowly, to reflect the new reality. Two years ago, Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne ordered three Chinese state-owned investors to unwind stakes in junior lithium explorers, warning that “while Canada continues to welcome foreign direct investment, we will act decisively when investments threaten our national security.”
More recently, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson extended the 15 percent mineral exploration tax credit, telling reporters the renewal would ease “anxiety on the part of the sector, especially the juniors” over financing without relying on Chinese capital.
The tougher stance shows upstream equity often translates into offtake agreements and long-term influence over export decisions. Once control slips away, Ottawa’s policy levers shrink. Blocking sales after the fact is messy, politically costly and bad for investor confidence. Setting clear guardrails before assets change hands is cleaner for everyone sitting around the board table.
Scandium spotlights supply chain risk
Scandium, a light metal used to harden aluminum for aircraft and solid-oxide fuel cells, shows how concentrated some niches have become. Market data put China’s share of global scandium production at roughly 58 percent in 2025, well ahead of any other country. By comparison, Beijing controls 98 percent of gallium output, the compound semiconductor metal that grabbed headlines after export controls last year.
Those statistics underline a hard truth. Even a 40 percent minority stake in a Canadian scandium project could hand a foreign buyer de facto veto power over shipments when geopolitical winds shift. Canada has sizeable scandium showings in Quebec and Nova Scotia, but none are in commercial production. If domestic investors cede control too early, the country risks repeating the gallium story and watching critical feedstock fall behind export restrictions it cannot influence.
Keeping ownership does not mean closing doors to all foreign money. It means structuring deals so that Canadian boards, lenders and governments hold meaningful blocking stakes, board seats and offtake rights. Australia’s “national interest” tests on lithium and rare earth deals offer one model. So does Norway’s golden-share approach in offshore energy infrastructure. The principle is the same. Investors bring cash. The host nation keeps a hand on the steering wheel.
Canada also needs speed. Permitting timelines stretch beyond a decade for many new mines. Inflation Reduction Act subsidies south of the border lure talent and capital. If Ottawa wants to keep control, it must pair tougher screening with faster approvals, clear royalty regimes and stable hydro power pricing. Otherwise the best projects will migrate to friendlier jurisdictions before the first shovel hits the ground.
A pragmatic balance is within reach. Strategic review thresholds can be set high enough to capture assets tied to the critical minerals list while leaving ordinary industrial deals untouched. Royal Canadian Mounted Police intelligence units already vet sensitive bidders. What remains is the political will to say no early, rather than scramble after the fact.
The global map of mineral power is redrawing itself. Canada sits on deposits the world needs. Selling too much, too soon would cash out the future for a short-term premium and leave domestic manufacturers negotiating supply with rivals. That is a bargain the country cannot afford.
