Ottawa plans to squeeze more barrels through the Trans Mountain pipeline before opening the door to outside ownership. The aim is to lift throughput and steady cash flows, then examine selling a stake in the Crown asset.
The federal Minister of Energy and Natural Resources has kept the door open to capacity tweaks, but not on a special fast track. “If there’s a case to be made for optimization, they will make that case, and we’ll consider it through the normal course,” said Tim Hodgson, in late August.
Utilization, tolls shape timing
Trans Mountain Expansion lifted total system capacity to 890,000 barrels a day in May 2024. Utilization has averaged a little over four-fifths since startup, which eased pipeline bottlenecks and narrowed price gaps for Canadian crude.
The Canada Energy Regulator says the new pipe increased western export capacity and boosted access to tidewater, improving netbacks for producers. Those gains are material for Alberta’s royalty base and Ottawa’s tax take. The federal regulator’s snapshot pegs early utilization near 82 percent, and notes improved pricing for Canadian oil relative to world benchmarks.
Trans Mountain’s management has outlined near term ways to push more crude through the line. Flow improvers, added pump horsepower and limited new pipe are on the table. These are standard debottleneck steps, not a new greenfield project. Ottawa’s message is to let that work proceed under existing rules, then reassess. That stance lines up with the operator’s own advice to avoid rushing the asset to market.
Sale structure and who buys
Any sale decision rests on revenue stability, shipper tolls and the pace of optimization work. A rate case to resolve toll disputes with oil shippers is slated for late 2025, which could reduce uncertainty on cash flows.
Trans Mountain’s chief executive has urged patience on divestment, saying the value will be clearer once volumes and tolls settle. “The one thing we have said consistently to the government is, don’t hurry,” said Mark Maki in June.
Ottawa has already tweaked ownership rules to smooth a future deal, including pathways for Indigenous equity. Changes in May 2024 gave Canada Development Investment Corporation more flexibility to form entities and transact, a key step to structure community-led stakes.
That points to a staged approach, with Indigenous participation central to any outcome. The government has said it does not intend to be the long term owner, but timing depends on how quickly volumes, tolls and earnings mature. The regulatory amendments were designed to enable that eventual transition.
Higher sustained utilization and modest capacity gains can support stronger differentials for Canadian barrels, which feeds producer cash flow and provincial revenues. Equity sale talk will keep bubbling, but policy and operations point to a wait and see period.
In the meantime, shippers, lenders and potential buyers will watch the CER toll decisions and throughput trends closely. A steadier line makes a cleaner sale.
