Chibougamau and Globex have clean upside to Mont Sorcier while Cerrado carries capex, timelines, and permits. The royalty structure multiplies if DRI premiums persist and permitting clears. Chibougamau says it retains a 2% gross metal royalty, and Globex notes a 1% gross metal iron royalty, as Cerrado advances infill drilling and a feasibility study now targeted for Q2 2026. Those levers, not headlines, drive value. Chibougamau’s Oct. 20, 2025 update and Globex’s same-day release both lift from Cerrado’s progress note, including 17,000 metres of infill drilling to support reserves and the Q2 2026 feasibility date.
Map The Cash Levers
Gross metal royalties sit on the top line, so volumes, realised grade, and price matter most. The 2022 PEA outlined 5.0 Mtpa of 65% iron concentrate, US$574 million upfront capex, and an after tax NPV8 of US$1.6 billion. That model assumed 65% Fe, before Cerrado’s 2025 test work showed a 67% DRI grade concentrate that should command a higher premium. Quebec’s own definition pegs high purity iron at 67% Fe with low impurities, which aligns with that metallurgy. If Cerrado locks DRI offtake and sustains premium pricing, the royalty cheques compound without royalty holders funding a dollar of capex. Voyager’s PEA summary and Cerrado’s March 3, 2025 metallurgy update frame that shift, and Quebec’s criteria confirm the 67% threshold.
Watch Permits And Premiums
Control and enforcement sit with Cerrado for studies and with Quebec for approvals. Cerrado flagged a revised EIA submission in October 2025 and had guided a Q1 2026 feasibility, then pushed to Q2 2026 on October 20. That slippage is mild, but Quebec’s BAPE process can stretch timelines if baseline data or consultation falter. The rail and Port of Saguenay path is known, but offtake quality tests and pricing terms still set realised premiums.
If iron premiums narrow, the gross royalty dulls quickly, even with higher grades. Cerrado’s Q2 2025 note and Cerrado’s Oct. 20, 2025 passage via Chibougamau set the current schedule. Cerrado’s 2024 program update details the port and rail concept outlined in the PEA. Cerrado’s CEO underlined the DRI angle this year.
He said, “concentrates such as those from Mont Sorcier are expected to be in high demand to support this transition and replace lower grade materials.”
That message links value directly to premium adoption and feasibility execution.
Policy Helps, but Provincial Gates and Offtake are Key
Policy tailwinds help, but they do not waive permits. When Ottawa added high purity iron to the critical minerals list on June 10, 2024, the minister said, “we are taking a proactive step to ensure that Canada’s efforts to seize the generational economic opportunity… are well informed by the most accurate market trends, geopolitical factors and science.”
That frames federal support for DRI supply, yet provincial agencies still gate timing.
Three near term switches change the slope. Cerrado can submit an acceptable EIA and keep Q2 2026 on track. Quebec can advance the review without pauses. Offtakers can sign DRI linked terms that preserve premiums through the cycle. If those fall in line, the 2% and 1% gross royalties convert study progress into cash, without balance sheet risk for the royalty holders.
