Revenue is down, but the build continues. Through the next six months, scenario analysis suggests Telesat’s equity story hinges on two clocks, the cash draw on its government and vendor facilities and the cadence of MDA’s Lightspeed production line feeding SpaceX’s 2026 launch campaign.
In the June, management reiterated full year revenue of roughly four hundred five to four hundred twenty five million dollars and consolidated adjusted EBITDA of one hundred seventy to one hundred ninety million, while flagging nine hundred to one thousand one hundred million in capex that is almost entirely Lightspeed related, numbers that imply a period of tighter but deliberate liquidity as GEO cash flows taper and LEO spend accelerates. With a contracted LEO backlog over one billion and GEO backlog near nine hundred million at mid-year, the next two quarters are about converting announced wins into binding, cash backed milestones and drawing down Ottawa’s loan on schedule.
From a capital structure standpoint, the April 2024 Government of Canada loan, carrying CORRA plus four point seven five percent with in kind interest during construction and warrants tied to a three billion dollar LEO equity valuation, gives Telesat runway without forcing dilutive equity at today’s levels. The September 2024 funding package, which stitched together additional vendor and export credit capacity, also set expectations for first launches in mid 2026, so the next half year is less about headlines and more about meeting test and integration gates that unlock tranches. The recent corporate move to distribute sixty two percent of the Lightspeed business to an indirect subsidiary adds structural flexibility for future partnerships or asset level financing, a subtle but real option value if market windows open. Quietly, that matters.
Manufacturing cadence and launch logistics shape the window
How quickly can hardware move? After passing key preliminary design reviews in late 2024, MDA’s AURORA based satellite platform is now in the manufacturing phase, which means the upcoming six months should see subsystem qualification, flat sat integration, and flight software burn down, all precursors to environmental testing and shipment to the Cape.
Imperative: keep suppliers on schedule. SpaceX has fourteen Falcon 9 launches under contract starting in 2026, and although Telesat does not need cadence parity with Starlink, preserving a predictable manifest window will be critical to hitting late 2027 service targets in aviation, maritime, and government.⁵ What happens if a slip emerges in a critical component or at a third party test facility, especially given crowded space industry labs in the first half of 2026?
Commercially, near term signals are constructive. Vocus committed to a Lightspeed landing station and terrestrial services in Australia, strengthening regional distribution where competition with Starlink is active and carrier customers prize redundancy.¹⁶ Management also highlighted a multi year agreement with Viasat covering aviation, maritime, enterprise, and defense, which broadens channel breadth without chasing direct to consumer.¹
As CEO Dan Goldberg put it, “We’re making strong progress on the Telesat Lightspeed technical and commercial fronts.” This is Canada, so progress will be measured, not proclaimed.
Risks are plain. GEO revenue resets, notably in North American video and certain international programs, reduce the internal cushion for LEO burn just as headcount and legal costs rise to support the build, and currency could swing reported metrics.
Competitive pressure from Starlink, OneWeb, and eventually Kuiper will not abate, pricing discipline may be tested in carrier backhaul and aero, and any launch or integration delays could push revenue recognition past internal models.⁵ Still, with SEDAR plus filings confirming liquidity positioning and guidance intact as of August, the base case for the next six months looks like steady execution, incremental contract conversion, and quiet factory milestones that matter more than the tape. Not a recommendation, for information purposes only.
