On October 16, 2025, General Motors and POSCO paused Ultium CAM’s second phase in Bécancour, and Vale cancelled its linked nickel sulphate plant, while phase one continues toward a 2026 start. The pause was confirmed publicly the same day, and GM’s Canadian site still lists production “expected to begin in 2026,” which we treat as the current schedule baseline. Two projects hit the brakes and the Ultium CAM project page establish both points. We’re left to wonder which Canadian company will be next to close down or ship out?
Reprice Incentives And Capacity
Ultium CAM phase two would have added precursor integration, which tightens cost control but demands predictable offtake. The Bureau d’audiences publiques dossier describes Vale’s plant as supplying Ultium CAM via a dedicated pipeline, which concentrates counterparty risk into one downstream expansion decision. That integration design amplified the cascade when phase two paused. The BAPE file details the physical linkage and throughput.
Demand signals weakened as policy shifted. On October 14, 2025, GM booked a US$1.6 billion charge while reassessing EV capacity and contracts after the U.S. federal US$7,500 consumer credit expired on September 30. That adjustment changes the North American pricing umbrella for nickel rich cathodes, lengthening payback horizons for new midstream assets. GM’s charge and the credit’s expiry provide the near term macro context.
Governments primed phase one with capital and political sponsorship, but construction risk remains with the joint venture. GM’s May 29, 2023 release cited a JV investment of more than C$600 million and an original first half 2025 start. The current GM site updates timing to 2026, and we use the company site as the most recent issuer statement. GM and POSCO Future M welcomed support then, but later sequencing reflects demand and policy reality.
Parties framed the Bécancour platform as a secure continental chain. In November 2022, Vale’s base metals head said, “This is a momentous agreement for Vale Base Metals,” when announcing a term sheet to supply 25,000 tonnes contained nickel per year as sulphate to GM. The quote conveyed strategic intent to anchor North American midstream capacity, which the current pause now tests on timing, not concept. Deshnee Naidoo’s statement remains the authoritative source.
GM positioned the Ultium supply chain as a coordinated in house effort. The same 2022 document quoted GM’s product and supply chief, “GM’s dedicated cross functional organization is strictly focused on building a secure, sustainable, scalable and cost competitive EV supply chain.” That focus clarifies who decides cadence, and why pausing capex dependent steps can preserve option value without abandoning phase one. Doug Parks’ statement sets the accountability frame.
Two control levers now matter. First, Quebec and Canada can condition future incentives on integrated throughput commitments, to spread risk beyond one offtaker and shorten financing timelines. Second, GM and POSCO can stage precursor capability through tolling with diversified feed, then add on site units when price signals or credits stabilize.
The constraint is not resource. Vale’s Canadian nickel system, including Long Harbour and Sudbury, can supply low carbon feed, and the original term sheet targeted deliveries in the second half of 2026. The constraint is enforceable demand visibility that justifies midstream integration at Bécancour today.
