Unifor is closing out a bruising 2025 and bracing for more. In a Dec. 19 interview, national president Lana Payne said U.S. trade actions have created fresh strain for members. A tariff is a tax on imports, and higher rates can shift production and prices.
“We’re going into bargaining in a year with a lot of uncertainty, a lot of chaos,” said Payne, who added that next year will be difficult. The remarks set the tone for a year when contracts and cross‑border policy will collide. It is a high‑stakes mix for workers and employers.
Trade risk clouds 95,000 contracts
Contract talks covering about 95,000 Unifor workers are slated for 2026, including those at the Detroit Three automakers. The large calendar means any swing in U.S. policy or pricing can push decisions on shifts, lines, or model allocations.
Payne said automotive, forestry, and metals faced steep duties in 2025, while other trade flowed more freely, creating an uneven picture on the ground.
“It’s been a hard year for working people,” said Payne, pointing to layoffs, shortened shifts, and idled plants. Tariffs were only part of it, but they were a clear headwind. Bargaining teams will try to lock in job security and investment commitments early.
Markets, policy, and supplier signals
Ottawa’s stance also matters. In March, the federal government launched counter‑measures on U.S. goods, saying the package would scale up if American duties stayed in place. The goal is leverage, and to shield key sectors from further shocks.
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25 per cent on Dec. 10, noting tariffs add costs even as inflation stays near target. Lower borrowing costs help manufacturers, but trade risk still drives capital plans. Suppliers have sent mixed signals, with some parts makers saying USMCA‑compliant production has limited the hit so far.
For the TSX, the story has been uneven across cyclicals. Auto‑linked names tracked headline risk, while rail and packaging names leaned on domestic demand. Forestry names faced weak pricing and trade friction at the same time, which compounded pressure. Metals producers saw tariff exposure collide with transition timelines and financing needs. Investors watched for plant level decisions, not just macro lines. That is likely to continue into the new year.
The bargaining map is crowded. Auto master agreements, rail locals, and parts plants all want clarity on where work will land in 2026 and beyond. Unifor will also press for stronger procurement rules that favour domestic content, especially on public fleets and infrastructure. Employers will look for stable input costs and predictable access to the U.S. market. If talks in Washington cool, the probability of longer lead times and diverted orders rises. That would feed back into schedules on both sides of the border.
Payne’s message was blunt, and it reflects the stakes for Canadian industry. The union wants Ottawa to hold its line on counter‑tariffs until the U.S. measures ease. Business leaders want certainty to plan capex and hiring.
With big contracts on deck, both sides need rules that reward North American production, not whipsaw it. The next few months will show whether policy catches up to plant reality. If it does, the risk premium on Canadian jobs can fall.
