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September 21, 2026

Signal Editorial

After a Record Summer, What’s Driving the TSX?

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Canadian stocks finished the summer near record territory, giving investors plenty of reasons to pay closer attention to a market that has often been overshadowed by its larger U.S. neighbour.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index reached a record closing high of 36,957.63 on August 25, extending a rally supported by Canadian financial stocks, resource companies and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings. The milestone came despite persistent concerns about Canada-U.S. trade, global growth and geopolitical uncertainty.

The structure of the Canadian market helps explain some of that resilience. Financial, energy and mining companies account for a substantial share of the TSX, giving the index exposure to sectors that can perform well under very different economic conditions.

Canadian banks provided one important source of strength during the summer. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank and CIBC all exceeded quarterly profit estimates when they reported results in August, while Bank of Montreal and Scotiabank also beat expectations. Capital markets and domestic banking helped support earnings across the sector, easing some concerns about the effect of household debt and economic uncertainty on Canada’s largest lenders.

Energy and mining companies have provided another source of support. Canada’s large resource sector means the TSX can benefit when commodity prices rise, even when those same price increases create challenges elsewhere in the economy. Oil and metals producers also give Canadian investors exposure to sectors that are much less prominent in technology-heavy U.S. indices.

The Canadian market is becoming broader in other areas as well. Technology remains a smaller part of the TSX than it does in the United States, but Shopify has given the index a major growth company whose fortunes are not primarily tied to banking or commodities.

Consumer companies are also contributing to the mix. Aritzia has been expanding rapidly in the United States, while Canadian Tire reported higher normalized earnings during its latest quarter despite cautious consumer spending. These companies provide investors with exposure to different parts of the economy than the sectors traditionally associated with the TSX.

Canada’s economic performance during the summer also provided some encouragement. The economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% during the second quarter, its strongest pace since 2023, while employment increased by 75,000 in July. Manufacturing continued expanding in August, marking a fifth consecutive month of growth.

The rally has occurred alongside significant risks. Canada’s renewed trade confrontation with the United States has introduced tariffs affecting billions of dollars in cross-border commerce, while businesses continue to deal with uncertainty surrounding investment and supply chains.

Interest rates remain another important factor. Changes in borrowing costs can affect bank profitability, housing activity, consumer spending and the relative appeal of dividend-paying stocks, all of which have an outsized influence on the Canadian market.

Record highs also change the calculation for investors. The further stocks rise, the harder it becomes to argue that Canadian companies are attractive simply because their valuations are lower than comparable U.S. businesses. Earnings increasingly need to justify higher share prices.

The TSX’s record-setting summer therefore reflects more than enthusiasm about a single industry. Strong banks, resource companies, improving economic data and a growing collection of companies expanding beyond Canada have all contributed.

For a market sometimes dismissed as overly dependent on banks and commodities, the summer of 2026 provided a reminder that those traditional strengths can coexist with a broader range of growth stories.